International oil prices have rebounded from their low on June 6,bringing relief to falling chemical futures.On Monday morning,the main force of domestic crude oil futures opened more than 4%higher,closing at 434.8 yuan/barrel,up 4.12%throughout the day.PTA futures,the weakest of the early chemical futures,also rebounded by 3.54%,boosted by stronger costs.

As of yesterday's close,chemical futures rose almost across the board.Among them,fuel futures rose 2.88%,asphalt futures rose 1.78%,polypropylene futures rose 1.37%,methanol futures rose 1.93%.

Analysts pointed out that the current risks still exist,the basic pressure of the chemical market remains unchanged,and the medium-term downward driving force of energy futures remains unchanged.However,in the short term,the upward repair momentum of the market is strong,and the plate may have a good opportunity to"breathe".

Chemical products usher in"breathing"opportunities

It is worth noting that the strong trend of crude oil futures in the past three trading days is still a drop in the bucket compared with the repair of the current round of decline.It is understood that since May 21,crude oil futures have fallen sharply,with U.S.crude oil futures reaching a low of$50.6 per barrel,falling into the"bear market area"for the third time since the beginning of 2017.

During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday,the agreement on production cuts and the expected changes in US monetary policy brought breathing space to international oil prices."Crude oil futures in Europe and the United States have rebounded as expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut have risen recently and there are signs that OPEC and other oil producers may extend the production cut agreement."Shenyin Wanguo futures analyst Dong Chao said.

According to reports,Saudi Energy Minister Falih said recently that OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers such as Russia should extend the implementation time of the production reduction agreement.At present,OPEC is close to reaching an agreement on extending the production reduction agreement until June,but it still needs to be approved at a joint meeting with non-OPEC oil producers participating in the production reduction at the end of June or early July.

In addition,the decline in the number of drilling wells in the United States has also added to the bullish sentiment in the oil market.Data released by Baker Hughes showed that in the week ending June 7,the number of wells drilled online in the United States was 789,11 fewer than the previous week and 73 fewer than the same period last year.

Founder medium-term futures analysts Sui Xiaoying and Zhang Zice said that overall,the short-term market news is good,while confidence has been restored after a series of sharp falls,and the crude oil market has a short-term rebound repair demand.

But in the medium term,market participants are not optimistic about the sustainability of the rebound in crude oil prices.Liu Chenrui,an analyst at East Asia Futures,pointed out that the WTI forward curve is expected to flatten as U.S.production hits a record high,refinery cracking spreads are weak,coupled with refinery technological transformation,the resumption of work falls short of expectations,and inventories accumulate against seasonality.In the future,we need to pay attention to the driving peak and the progress of refinery recovery.At present,the Brent monthly difference in the non-US region is weakening,and the overall situation is still affected by the US inventory data and the expected decline in macro demand.However,during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday,there are frequent positive news,which makes the market bearish sentiment recede.After the transportation problem in the United States is solved in the third quarter,the supply side will deteriorate substantially.Therefore,the medium-term bearish oil price logic remains unchanged.

Opportunity differentiation of chemical sector

Boosted by the recent rebound in crude oil prices,the A-share shale gas sector rose on Monday.According to Wande statistics,the sector rose 1.78%to the close,with Hengtai Epp leading the rise by 4.56%.In addition,the fine chemical sector rose 1.61%,among which Huicheng Environmental Protection and Oriental Materials rose and stopped,and many other stocks rose by more than 5%.In addition,the downstream aviation sector fell 0.67%during the day.

For the future investment value of the chemical sector,Guotai Jun'an Securities Research points out that the average price of most chemical products will decline in 2019,and the industry's prosperity will decline.From the supply side,the industry expansion momentum is rational and controllable,but the demand side is difficult to improve due to macro risks,and the average price of chemical products is likely to decline.In the context of the decline in global economic growth,the downward movement of the oil price center will also exert pressure on the price of chemical products,and if there is no external boost,the chemical boom will fall.

However,some organizations believe that there are still structural opportunities in the future of the chemical industry,such as the outstanding fine chemical sector yesterday.

Guosheng Securities Research said it would continue to recommend leading companies in the fine chemical sector.It is expected that under the pressure of safety production measures,enterprises in parks in Jiangsu Province will face temporary load reduction,and temporary maintenance will occur frequently in the future,which will depress the overall operating rate of fine chemicals in Jiangsu Province and lead to a gradual rise in the price of fine chemicals.This is the overall rise in the price of fine chemicals,which will cover all kinds of dyes,pesticides,vitamins and additives,and continue to recommend leading companies and new material growth stocks with industrial chain integration in various subdivisions.

From the perspective of futures investment,CITIC Futures Research and Analysis shows that after the recent release of crude oil and macro risks,the short-term decline of crude oil has slowed down,and the price trend of chemical products has also stabilized in the short term,but the macro negative is still fermenting,the negative risk still exists,and the medium-term supply and demand pressure of chemical products is still in place,driving is still mainly downward.If crude oil continues to fall and external disturbances intensify in the future,chemical products may continue to bottom out,but short-term short-chasing still needs to be cautious.

The agency suggests that asphalt,fuel oil and PVC are still recommended for long allocation in the early stage,but considering that the risk of heavy oil being affected by crude oil decline is still there,and PVC production is facing restart pressure in the near future,long allocation is recommended for PP for the time being,waiting for the opportunity to re-enter the market,driven by the restart of PP plant and the release of new production capacity,which of course will indirectly pressure methanol futures price.

Cautious short selling in the short term

Among the chemical products,PTA futures had the strongest rebound momentum yesterday.It is understood that crude oil prices continued to fall,making the PTA cost side collapse,PTA futures continued to decline weakly,constantly hitting new low prices,the main 1909 contract once fell to 5082 yuan/ton line.However,as crude oil futures stabilized and rebounded at a low level,short profits were taken,and PTA futures also rebounded synchronously.

From a fundamental point of view,Guoxin Futures analyst He Wei analyzed that at present,some PTA plants have been overhauled and the market supply has contracted.However,the terminal demand continues to be weak,the momentum of grey cloth accumulation has not been reversed,polyester production and sales have returned to light,and the supply side has not yet appeared.We should pay attention to the maintenance of PTA plants in the later period.At present,the macro environment is weak,but during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday,oil prices rebounded sharply,cost-side contradictions eased,PTA short-term continue to focus on 5000 yuan/ton pass support.

In terms of other chemical products,Zhang yuanliang,an analyst at CITIC Construction Investment Futures,said that the continuous rebound in crude oil has strengthened the support for polyolefin futures prices.However,from the supply and demand side,the accumulation of petrochemical stocks after the Dragon Boat Festival holidays,the restart of maintenance units and the commissioning of new units will lead to the pressure of polyolefin supply.However,there is usually a demand for replenishment downstream after the festival,so if the market is better,it is not excluded that polyolefin will rebound.It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the macro and downstream procurement and the operation of the plant.

In terms of methanol,Founder medium-term futures analyst Xia Congcong pointed out that at present,the fundamentals of methanol itself are weak,the sharp drop in oil prices accelerated the downward trend of methanol futures prices,and the main contract before the festival once hit a new low in the past two years.With the restart of the shutdown unit in the domestic methanol spot market,the methanol start-up level has obviously rebounded,and the supply has shown an increasing trend.The supply of goods at low prices in the market has increased,but the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to receive goods is not high.The traditional methanol demand industry has entered the off-season,and the demand is difficult to release.Driven by the replenishment of the downstream market,methanol port inventory has dropped significantly,but it is still at a relatively high level.The international methanol price is also declining,and the domestic and foreign markets are weak.Methanol supply and demand side under pressure,futures prices continued the downturn trend,but continued to fall momentum is insufficient.

Original reposted from:China Securities Journal,China Securities Network